782
FXUS62 KCAE 290830
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY
ANOTHER DAY OF BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR YOUR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SEASONAL RANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISING AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE MODERATING A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S, IT'LL DEFINITELY FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BUT NOTHING
TOO CRAZY JUST YET. AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A RINSE
AND REPEAT FORECAST IS IN PLACE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ISOLATED CONVECTION THU
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING JUST EAST ON THURSDAY. WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION PRECLUDING DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER WHEN THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FA AIDED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY WILL ALLOW PWATS
TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES IN NORTH/CENTRAL GA INTO THE SC UPSTATE.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. DESPITE SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES, MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER
LIMITED. NAEFS PWATS ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 OR 1.33 INCHES. LAPSE RATES SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WITH A DEEP
INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDING, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA HOWEVER
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
SCATTERED. IT WILL BE WARMEST ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND COOLER ON SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS DOMINANCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHED
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES A WHILE AGO, BRIEFLY INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE. THIS HAS REALLY NOT
RESULTED IN ANYTHING AT THIS POINT, THOUGH, AND ISN'T EXPECTED
TO YIELD AVIATION PROBLEMS TONIGHT. AGS/DNL MAY GET CLOSE TO
SOME STRATOCUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS THAT IS DEVELOPING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. IN GENERAL, THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY, THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS
OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FALL
OFF AFTER 00Z AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES CARRYING US INTO THE
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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