286
FXUS62 KCAE 292318
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT THAN EXPECTED EARLIER WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WHICH HAS IMPACTED TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MIDLANDS KEEPING THEM COOLER. THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WEST
WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT.
TONIGHT: DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT
BY LATE EVENING ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY
AROUND BODIES OF WATER WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 20-25
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP A BIT AND SOMEWHAT LIMIT WHAT OTHERWISE
WOULD BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. STILL
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, A BIT
WARMER OVERALL THAN LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CALM, HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BROAD MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. THANKS TO STRONG RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LOW LEVEL FLOW, TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80'S BOTH DAYS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL STEADILY SNEAK INTO THE
UPPER 50'S TO LOW 60'S. SO A TASTE OF SUMMER WITH SOME 90TH
PERCENTILE TEMPS AND MOISTURE FILLING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER-STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PRECIP AT ALL
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLOW MOVING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOME SHOWERS-STORMS LIKELY.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WHILE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS-
STORMS. THE MOISTURE POOLING IN FRONT OF THE THIS FRONT HOWEVER
WON'T BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH PWAT'S ONLY AROUND 1.25"; NAEFS IVT
DOESN'T EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST AT BEST, AND COMBINED WITH MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY IN GENERAL WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH LESS
THAN 1000 ML CAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE LAST
COUPLE ENSEMBLE SUITES IS A SLOWING OF THIS FRONT, WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. SO A DECREASING DIURNAL FAVORABILITY IS
ALSO AT PLAY. OVERALL, SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
STARTING LATE FRIDAY, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING; A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN GENERAL HAS
DECREASED.
BEYOND SATURDAY, MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH NAEFS AND EC EFI HIGHLIGHTING THIS NICELY WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS, TEMPS, AND MOISTURE LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT PRONE AGS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN TYPICAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 15Z. SOME
FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AT AGS DUE TO RIVER FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK, BUT A LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 20-25 KTS COULD PREVENT
SOME OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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