449
FXUS62 KCAE 300856
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF BEAUTIFUL
WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THESE FEATURES SHOULD SHIFT MARGINALLY
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH WILL DO LITTLE OUTSIDE OF MODIFYING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY FROM WHERE IT WAS YESTERDAY, SHIFTING LOW-
LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL AID THE MOST IN
OVERALL MODIFICATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER
80S AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14-16C OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BUT WITH PWS NEAR
OR JUST BELOW 1", NOT EXPECTED EVEN WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME GUIDANCE (SPECIFICALLY, THE ARW BRANCH
OF THE HREF) THAT WAS PUSHING DECAYING CONVECTION INTO THE
NORTHERN FA LATE TODAY BUT THAT SEEMS PRETTY FAR FETCHED RIGHT
NOW. TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE LOW 60S AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FA ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S BUT DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT QUITE THE
SUMMERTIME FEEL YET. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS THEY WORK OVER THE RIDGE. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO ONLY
AROUND 1 INCH SO CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER HELP PROMOTE MILD TEMPS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AND SAT
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE NOTICEABLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL
THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. A
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD WORK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (PWATS ONLY
AROUND 1.25" AND NAEFS IVT AT OR BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE) SO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SEEMS UNLIKELY. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY IS PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRIGGERED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING.
LAPSE RATES ON FRIDAY ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP LEADING TO A LIMITED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTING THAT A
FEW STORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. CONSISTENT
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
LINGERING MOISTURE DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT PRONE AGS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPERIENCING QUIET CONDITIONS
- OUTSIDE OF MAYBE CAE/CUB WHERE LLWS COULD BE OCCURRING. THIS
HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING TREND RECENTLY; THE VAD PROFILE HAS MORE
THAN ONCE SHOWN REALLY INTENSE WINDS AT 1-2KFT, MUCH MORE
INTENSE THAN ANY GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN. A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, WE HAD
A COUPLE OF ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM CAE THAT REVEALED WEAKER WINDS
THAN THE RADAR WAS SAMPLING AT THE SAME HEIGHT. THE VAD IS
INDICATING VERY INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 500-1000 FEET.
GIVEN NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS, WENT WITH LLWS IN THE TAFS AT 500'
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST BUT IS IMPORTANT TO DISCUSS NONETHELESS. IT MAY BE
THERE BUT IT ALSO MAY BE THE CASE THAT THE VAD IS OVERESTIMATING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SIMILAR TO THE WAY IT DID A FEW WEEKS AGO. THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD IS A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST; WINDS SHOULD
BE 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, CALMING AT
SUNSET. AUGUSTA WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME PERIODIC GROUND FOG
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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