379
FXUS62 KCAE 301435
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM DAY IN STORE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS RIDING
AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TONIGHT BUT
OVERALL, THIS WILL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY REACHING 14C PER MESOANALYSIS
WHILE WE KEEP SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE REGION AND SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. MORE SCATTERED CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FA AND PWAT'S REMAIN
NEAR TO JUST UNDER 1". AS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME
IN, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE HIGH RES MODEL RUNS THAT
BRING DECAYING CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE FAR NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION BUT THE GENERAL TREND AMONGST ALL
THESE RUNS IS THIS ACTIVITY STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE FA SO I HAVE
CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FA ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S BUT DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT QUITE THE
SUMMERTIME FEEL YET. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AS THEY WORK OVER THE RIDGE. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO ONLY
AROUND 1 INCH SO CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER HELP PROMOTE MILD TEMPS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AND SAT
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE NOTICEABLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL
THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. A
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD WORK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (PWATS ONLY
AROUND 1.25" AND NAEFS IVT AT OR BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE) SO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SEEMS UNLIKELY. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY IS PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRIGGERED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING.
LAPSE RATES ON FRIDAY ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP LEADING TO A LIMITED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTING THAT A
FEW STORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. CONSISTENT
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
LINGERING MOISTURE DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS, FALLING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page