541
FXUS62 KCAE 301842
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TOWARD THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE THREAT IS
LOW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
- JUST ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FA
AS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REACH 14-15C. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE SEEN OVERHEAD. AS
EXPECTED, SOME CONVECTION HAS FIRED JUST NORTH OF THE NC/SC
BORDER, AROUND THE BORDER OF THE 850 MB HIGH CENTER AND WHERE A
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH PWAT'S GOING FROM NEAR 1" IN THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO 1.2-1.3" IN THE UPSTATE OF SC. THE RECENT
MEAN HREF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND THUS THE EXPECTED DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING
WITH POPS UNDER 10% IN THE FAR NORTHERN FA. TONIGHT, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY, AND SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, BUT MOISTURE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, AND THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY. MAJORITY OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RECOVERY IN THE UPSTATE OF SC/GA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT IN THE VICINITY, CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG CHANCES AT AGS AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS ARE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK AROUND 4-5K FT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH GENERALLY AND THIS LIKELY CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THE TWO MAIN
FORECAST POINTS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AT
AGS BETWEEN 9-12Z, BUT THE SIGNAL IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME. THEN, RAP AND
HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEGUN SUGGESTING THAT ABOVE TONIGHT'S
INVERSION AROUND 25-30 KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP
AROUND 1,000 TO 1,500 FT AND THUS MENTION OF LLWS MAYBE NEEDED
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THIS OUT
OF THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUING PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CUMULUS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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