896
FXUS62 KCAE 010549
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TOWARD THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE THREAT IS
LOW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- JUST ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY, AND SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, BUT MOISTURE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, AND THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY. MAJORITY OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RECOVERY IN THE UPSTATE OF SC/GA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT IN THE VICINITY, CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER MAY RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG CHANCES AT AGS AGAIN TONIGHT.
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE STAYING UP MORE THAN ANTICIPATED, GENERALLY RUNNING 4-6
KNOTS AT ALL SITES RIGHT NOW. THIS MAY RELAX AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON, BUT AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THAT THEY DIDN'T FALL OFF LAST NIGHT
AND WE HAVE A SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THIS MAY IMPACT
THE ABILITY FOR GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THINGS SIMILAR TO THE WAY THEY WERE YESTERDAY, WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED. AFTER 00Z, THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AGAIN, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING OVER AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page