890
FXUS62 KCAE 011030
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES RAMP
UP LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER BUT
THE THREAT IS LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED TO OUR EAST AS TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT RIDGING TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL. FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
THIS WON'T REALLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN, WITH BELOW
NORMAL PWS OVER THE AREA AGAIN KEEPING THINGS PRETTY PLEASANT
OUTSIDE. HOWEVER, AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION MAY END UP SKIRTING THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SC AND WESTERN NC. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT WITH THE
HREF INDICATING PWS INCREASING TO 1.2-1.4" OVERNIGHT, IT IS
WORTHY OF MENTION HERE IN THE AFD. WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING
AROUND, ITS HARD TO THINK LOWS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOW
TO MID 60S IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL
RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SW FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM
CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH COULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
MORNING. CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIMINISHING CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN GA.
WITH WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, NO CAPPING INVERSION
IS EXPECTED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. AS
THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. STORMS MAY TRIGGER ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTION OR ALONG THE SEAS
BREEZE. SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDING INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN PULSE-TYPE OR MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SW FLOW WILL
PROMOTE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FA PRODUCING PWAT
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL. A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS TEND TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND HANGING
OUT OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS. THERE'S A LARGE SPREAD IN MOISTURE PROFILES
FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL, DRIER WEATHER AND LOW POPS
FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG CHANCES AT AGS AGAIN TONIGHT.
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THINGS SIMILAR TO THE WAY THEY WERE YESTERDAY, WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED. AFTER 00Z, THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AGAIN, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING OVER AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN, WITH HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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