184
FXUS62 KCAE 011448
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES RAMP
UP LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER BUT
THE THREAT IS LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN THIS MORNING AS SOME PASSING CIRRUS
ARE MOVING OVERHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY
SLIDING EAST THROUGH TODAY AS TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WESTERN FA AND
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
APPROACHING 14C LATE THIS MORNING AND THUS ANOTHER AFTERNOON
MAKING A RUN FOR THE UPPER 80S IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE WESTERN
FA MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 80S DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SEEN MOVING ALONG A MOISTURE
GRADIENT TOWARD THE UPSTATE OF GA/SC WHERE PWAT'S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA ARE AROUND 1-1.10" BUT INCREASE TO NEAR 1.3-1.4" IN THE
UPSTATE. THESE SHOWERS LIKELY STAY OUT OF THE FA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THIS HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND THE 12Z HRRR AND HRW RUNS SHOW SOME OF THESE
ISOLATED SHOWERS SCRAPING THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS AND THUS
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT (POPS BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT). OVERNIGHT, WE LIKELY
KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL
RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SW FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM
CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH COULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
MORNING. CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIMINISHING CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN GA.
WITH WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, NO CAPPING INVERSION
IS EXPECTED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. AS
THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. STORMS MAY TRIGGER ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTION OR ALONG THE SEAS
BREEZE. SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDING INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN PULSE-TYPE OR MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WORK THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SW FLOW WILL
PROMOTE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FA PRODUCING PWAT
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL. A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS TEND TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND HANGING
OUT OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS. THERE'S A LARGE SPREAD IN MOISTURE PROFILES
FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL, DRIER WEATHER AND LOW POPS
FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THINGS SIMILAR TO THE WAY THEY WERE YESTERDAY, WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED. AFTER 00Z, THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AGAIN, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING OVER AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN, WITH HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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