119
FXUS62 KCAE 011823
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES RAMP
UP LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY, BUT THEN DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN FA
INTO TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AS 5-10 MPH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AND 14C 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPSTATE OF GA/SC, THOUGH
SOME DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR NORTHERN MCCORMICK COUNTY IS
NOTED WHERE A PULSE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED THROUGH, WITH SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TRAILING IT INTO LINCOLN COUNTY, GA. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE REACHING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PWAT'S REACHING 1.2-1.4" HERE AND SOME MODEST CAPE. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH BEFORE MOVING
OFF TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE NEARING THE FA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OVERALL, THIS BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND INTO THE NORTHERN CSRA, STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON (WHERE A THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE), BUT MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE FA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND ELEVATED
WINDS LIKELY ONLY ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE OFF TO OUR WEST A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY.
BEFORE THAT THOUGH, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRIDAY,
AND THE REGION SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPSTATE
OF SC/GA AND EVEN INTO THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION, CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EITHER, BUT EVEN THAT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS, AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION THERE
IS A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM STRENGTH. SPC
DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEEING
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GRADIENT
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES STILL MILD EVEN WITH THE
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND RAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST
AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
OR STORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO TIMING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SOME DRYING OCCURS MONDAY, WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
INTO THE LOW-COUNTRY. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR BY TUESDAY SHOULD BRING
A DRIER FORECAST TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FROM 8-12 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 15-18
KTS SEEN AT TIMES. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, GREATER MOISTURE ALOFT
BRINGS A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER NIGHT WHERE 25-30 KTS OF FLOW AROUND
1,000 FT MAY DEVELOP. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF LLWS AS MOST
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED (NEAR 5 KTS)
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT IF WINDS ALOFT INCREASING FURTHER, LLWS
MAYBE NEEDED BY 5-7Z. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG AT AGS/OGB
TONIGHT BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WINDS, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO 5-10 KTS AS SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN WITH CONTINUING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE
JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SCATTERED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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