609
FXUS62 KCAE 030220
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD LOW TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A SOMEWHAT EVENTFUL EVENING, THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO STABILIZE. THERE COULD STILL BE A POP UP
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
LIGHTNING-FREE. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS POISED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
AND/OR DECREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE IT STARTS KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. THAT SAID, CONTINUED WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA JUST IN CASE THE LEADING EDGE OF DECAYING
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GA IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. OTHERWISE,
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS REMAINING FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, THEN
THROUGH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME MORE CUTOFF JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND
STALL OFF THE COAST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE TROUGH AND TOWARDS THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND EVEN LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THE BEST DYNAMICS STILL LOOK TO PASS JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND INTO PORTIONS OF NC. EVEN SO,
SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. KEPT COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MOSTLY SCATTERED, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH LAKE
WIND CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES STILL MILD EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL
CLOUDS AND RAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST AREA.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE CUTTING OFF NORTH OF THE
AREA, AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY, THEN PUSH EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLOWING ALONG
THE WAY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BECOME LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL BE CLOSER TO
THE FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE, AND EVEN A POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE,
THE KEEP HIGHER POPS. SPC DOES STILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. ONCE
AGAIN, STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY DO COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITION TO START OFF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SPIN NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST WHILE WEAKENING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO START OFF THE WEEK TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
DRY. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR EAST CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT
AND ANY SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY. AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, UNCERTAINTY RETURNS AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE BACK INTO REGION. THIS COULD BRING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS-STORMS
THIS EVENING.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEING SEEN ON RADAR
APPROACHING CAE/CUB. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE OVER THESE TERMINALS
THROUGH 01-02Z. PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DON'T THINK THE ACTIVITY
WILL AFFECT THE OTHER TERMINALS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL ADD
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-8 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AFTER ABOUT
18Z, GUSTING TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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