645
FXUS62 KCAE 030601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER BUT
STILL SOME RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
CENTRAL, EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
A STRONG, DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WITH A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS A RESULT A
SERIES OF A SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS PARENT TROUGH
ARE PRODUCING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN MCS'S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT
WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OVER OUR AREA AS THE TROUGH
SLIDES EAST. WHILE THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND DECAYING
MCS'S IS TRICKY, IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MID-LATER AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY AN MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LATER IN
THE EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS, PWAT'S AROUND 1.25",
AND SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80'S. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS GUIDANCE (I.E. RRFS VS HREF), AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH 1000+ ML CAPE AND WELL MIXED BL
UP THROUGH 850-700MB. DESPITE A VERY STRONG TROUGH, SHEAR WILL
BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH ONLY 30 KNOTS OR SO OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR;
SO OVERALL, A PULSE-LIKE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME ORGANIZED
SEGMENTS LOOKS LIKELY BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS.
THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT-MORNING MCS OUTFLOW
WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDLANDS SOMEWHERE, WITH CONVECTION IN THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS. SO, CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY HIGHEST IN A SEVERE THREAT FOR BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL-EASTERN MIDLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE PEE
DEE AREA. GENERALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF HAIL GROWTH CAPE OR
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR (COMPARED TO FRIDAY). THE TRAILING MCS WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SCOURING
OUT ANY INSTABILITY, BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE CUTTING OFF NORTH OF THE
AREA, AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY, THEN PUSH EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLOWING ALONG
THE WAY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BECOME LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL BE CLOSER TO
THE FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE, AND EVEN A POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE,
THE KEEP HIGHER POPS. SPC DOES STILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. ONCE
AGAIN, STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY DO COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITION TO START OFF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SPIN NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST WHILE WEAKENING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO START OFF THE WEEK TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
DRY. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR EAST CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT
AND ANY SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY. AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, UNCERTAINTY RETURNS AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE BACK INTO REGION. THIS COULD BRING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD T-STORMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AS OF 06Z ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR AGS AND DNL.
THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TERMINALS BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS SEEN SO FAR AT THE SURFACE IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS-STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR TSRA TERMINAL IMPACTS AS CAE AND CUB
AFTER 20Z LASTING THROUGH 03Z OR SO. IMPACTS AT DNL, AGS, AND
OGB MAY BE A BIT MORE SPORADIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL PLENTY
HIGH ENOUGH TO TAF MENTIONS. PREDOMINANT GROUPS FOR TSRA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE ONCE TIMING IS BUT
MORE CERTAIN. SO OVERALL, VARIABLE AND HIGHLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE STORY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SPORADIC IFR-LIFR VSBY WITHIN ANY STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY AT OGB.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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