342
FXUS62 KCAE 030643
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
243 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COOLER BUT
STILL SOME RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
CENTRAL, EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
A STRONG, DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WITH A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS A RESULT A
SERIES OF A SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS PARENT TROUGH
ARE PRODUCING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN MCS'S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT
WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OVER OUR AREA AS THE TROUGH
SLIDES EAST. WHILE THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND DECAYING
MCS'S IS TRICKY, IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MID-LATER AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY AN MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LATER IN
THE EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS, PWAT'S AROUND 1.25",
AND SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80'S. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS GUIDANCE (I.E. RRFS VS HREF), AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH 1000+ ML CAPE AND WELL MIXED BL
UP THROUGH 850-700MB. DESPITE A VERY STRONG TROUGH, SHEAR WILL
BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH ONLY 30 KNOTS OR SO OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR;
SO OVERALL, A PULSE-LIKE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME ORGANIZED
SEGMENTS LOOKS LIKELY BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS.
THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT-MORNING MCS OUTFLOW
WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDLANDS SOMEWHERE, WITH CONVECTION IN THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS. SO, CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY HIGHEST IN A SEVERE THREAT FOR BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL-EASTERN MIDLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE PEE
DEE AREA. GENERALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF HAIL GROWTH CAPE OR
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR (COMPARED TO FRIDAY). THE TRAILING MCS WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SCOURING
OUT ANY INSTABILITY, BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW PRETTY MUCH COMES TO A DEAD STOP ON SUNDAY, SO THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DRAMATICALLY AS WELL NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CWA. THAT WILL SET UP A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
WILL ALLOW THE REFORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES A FINAL PUSH
OFFSHORE. PW VALUES WILL BE DOWN QUITE A BIT AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING, INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CAPE HIGH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE STUBBORN OHIO VALLEY CUTOFF ONLY DRIFTS
NORTHWARD, BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AS A MODEST
UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SETS UP. THE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ON INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BE ON THE INCREASE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED THE NEXT
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD T-STORMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AS OF 06Z ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR AGS AND DNL.
THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TERMINALS BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS SEEN SO FAR AT THE SURFACE IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS-STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR TSRA TERMINAL IMPACTS AS CAE AND CUB
AFTER 20Z LASTING THROUGH 03Z OR SO. IMPACTS AT DNL, AGS, AND
OGB MAY BE A BIT MORE SPORADIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL PLENTY
HIGH ENOUGH TO TAF MENTIONS. PREDOMINANT GROUPS FOR TSRA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE ONCE TIMING IS BUT
MORE CERTAIN. SO OVERALL, VARIABLE AND HIGHLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE STORY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SPORADIC IFR-LIFR VSBY WITHIN ANY STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AT CAE,
CUB, AND ESPECIALLY OGB. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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