639
FXUS62 KCAE 270613
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE
REGION RELATIVELY COOL TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.
WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOVING INTO THE
CSRA AROUND 08-09Z AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THE WEDGE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WITH
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND
LOWER CSRA.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT COOL ON TUESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- THE WEDGE ERODES ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: STILL EXPECTING THE SURFACE WEDGE TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EXPECTATION
THAT THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COULD SEE SOME
SCOURING OUT OF THE WEDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD
BRING SOME BREAKS TO THE CLOUDS, AND EVEN SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE/CATAWBA REGIONS. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
MUCH OF THE CSRA IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80. DRESS
ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR RAINFALL, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD STILL
BE OCCURRING AT TIMES OVER THE WEDGE, SO LIGHT
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WHICH COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, IN THE WARMER AIR OUTSIDE
OF THE WEDGE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEDGE MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WEDGE MAY FINALLY BE ABLE TO
SCOUR OUT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BETTER MIXING HELPS TO
ERODE THE WEDGE PATTERN. WITH MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. CLOUDS AND RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING
PERIOD, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE DAY MAY END UP ON THE DRIER SIDE AS
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE MAY
PREVENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BUT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS
THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
UPPER TROUGH TRENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH BETTER DYNAMICS GETTING CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS LOW AT THIS TIME FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DRYING OUT POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS BEING NOTED AT MANY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND -SHRA THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLD-SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA TO
CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS. VSBYS AT
TIMES MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 3 SM. SFC WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NELY
AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PAUSE IN PRECIP AROUND MIDDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, GENERALLY EAST OF CAE/CUB AND THE
AUGUSTA TERMINALS, SO INCLUDED A VCTS AT OGB. ON AND OFF PRECIP
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS IS CURRENTLY LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER TUESDAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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