257
FXUS62 KCAE 270751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MUCH OF THE WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE REGION
RELATIVELY COOL TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. DRIER WEATHER
SEEMS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.
- CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT COOL TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM WITH COOL NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW AND MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM CENTRAL
GA INTO EASTERN GA AND WESTERN SC EARLY THIS MORNING. HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN AREA OF PRECIP AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES, AIDED BY
PVA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY
OVERALL REMAINS LIMITED AND SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY THUNDER IS LOW, BUT
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY HOLDING
STEADY WITH WINDS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
SO EXPECT MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE BULK OF STRATIFORM PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS INTO THE UPSTATE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COULD SEE SOME BREAKING OUT OF THE WEDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW
FOR BETTER SOLAR INSOLATION COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT IS SEVERAL HREF MEMBERS AND OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO SET UP
A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, WITH AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND MUCH OF
THE CSRA IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.
WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA, AND WHILE IT SHOULD LOSE SOME ENERGY AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, IT MAY BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION.
THE WEDGE FRONT MAY EASE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY EXIST DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY.
- MORE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WEDGE CONDITIONS LOOK TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES AND DEEP
MOISTURE BEFORE THE WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND THE WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE FA, TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT BETTER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON, FURTHER
AIDING IN BRINGING AN END TO WEDGE CONDITIONS. THE RETURN OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TOWARD
THE LOW TO MID 80S AS PWAT'S FALL TOWARD 1.25-1.4" BY THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND MORE ISOLATED THAN
TUESDAY AS THE CWA LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVED THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE WEDGE FRONT LIFTS NORTH,
THIS MAY PROVIDE MORE OF AN AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SEEMS TO BE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN FA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT HIGHER DCAPE
VALUES WITH THE BETTER MIXING AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. THESE CHANCES LIKELY DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY SEES A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
AND GREATER UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. PWAT'S REMAIN NEAR 120-130%
OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BY THE EVENING, A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO NEAR AS WELL. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SHOULD
DRIVE SCATTERED RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. WITH THE BETTER
DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLACE, SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A SUITE OF MACHINE LEARNING
PRODUCTS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS LREF PROBABILITIES FOR MUCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG IS BETWEEN 50-70%. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO
NEAR THE FA INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES COME FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL DRIER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE FA WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND GREATER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. CURRENTLY, THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, DRIVING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT. THE RECENT OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A 30-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPING BY
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AND THUS WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME IS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SOLID DYNAMICS IN PLACE. MUCH DRIER
AIR THAN WAS SEEN MOST OF THE WEEK MOVES IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT'S NEARING
1" AND UPPER HEIGHTS THAT REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL AND MAY EVEN RISE
A BIT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PREVAIL TO START THE WEEK, BUT SOME
MODIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE APEX OF A
RIDGE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS BEING NOTED AT MANY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND -SHRA THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLD-SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA TO
CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS. VSBYS AT
TIMES MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 3 SM. SFC WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NELY
AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PAUSE IN PRECIP AROUND MIDDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, GENERALLY EAST OF CAE/CUB AND THE
AUGUSTA TERMINALS, SO INCLUDED A VCTS AT OGB. ON AND OFF PRECIP
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS IS CURRENTLY LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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