939
FXUS62 KCAE 280031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MUCH OF THE WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BREAK
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN A RETURN TO DRIER
WEATHER SEEMS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD-AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO YIELD LOW CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY. DUE TO THE STOUT WEDGE
IN PLACE, THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART.
A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG BY AN MEANS. SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS ALSO STAYED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, SO I THINK THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED. THAT SAID, RAIN RATES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH AND IF
THERE IS TRAINING ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, NEAREST TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AN ISOLATED SPOT OF
MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER THE MAIN ACTIVITY
MOVES EASTWARD, JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY EXIST DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
IN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DAY WILL START OFF WITH THE WEDGE
STILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MOST ENTRENCHED
PART OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF RAINFALL EXITING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS
FOR SHOWERS, SO A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EVEN SO, AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THESE CHANCES LIKELY DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: EXPECTING TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY REGARDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE LIMITING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES, THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CAPE VALUES
INCREASE BY THAT POINT, AND THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHEAR IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION, PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN, EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION.
CIPS PROBABILITIES SHOW OVER 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA,
WHILE THE CSU PROBABILITIES SHOW A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA
CONFINED MORE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN/STRONGER STORM CHANCES COME FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL DRIER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT BE POISED TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASES, THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS. IN
LOWER LEVELS, A GOOD LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS MOVES THROUGH.
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, SO IT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A PRIME TIME FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO DEVELOP. SPC DOES HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A 15 PERCENT
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS, SO FRIDAY WOULD BE A GOOD DAY TO REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND: BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST BLENDS HAVE
LATCHED ON TO THE VERY LOW POPS, SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
CAD WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME BRINGING
REDUCED VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AT AGS/DNL/OGB.
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION
BUT IT IS LIKELY STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE
AND REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH 03Z OR SO OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THEN BECOME
LIGHTER AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
LIFR BY 06Z THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
WEDGE ERODES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS 6
TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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