165
FXUS62 KCAE 281827
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
227 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER SEEMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW-LEVEL WEDGE CONTINUES TO SCOUR OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY EXIST EAST DURING PEAK
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- BECOMING DRY OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
THIS AFTERNOON: WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE BROKEN TO SCATTERED.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 70S, AND MAY EVEN REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SEVERAL AREAS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL BE GONE, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD CAUSE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
AN EJECTING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SWING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE PRIMARY LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT A
TERRIBLY HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE, DEEP PERSISTENT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SC AND GA. WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP, AND
INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 ML CAPE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20,
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS; THE 12Z HREF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THANKS TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
PWAT'S OVER 1.5". THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WELL, UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM, BUT THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE SHEAR BELOW 3KM. SO, OVERALL,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC MODERATELY
FORCED, MODERATE CAPE, AND MODERATE SHEAR SETUP WITH SOLID HREF
SUPPORT. SO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20; THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE THREAT AREA WELL WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. UNLIKE THURSDAY, THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS NOTABLE FOR LATE MAY WITH 95-99TH PERCENTILE
FLOW AT 500MB. WITH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT STRENGTHENING FROM LOW-
MID LEVELS, SHEAR WILL NOT BE LACKING ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
0-1KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL ALSO YIELD
SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENTS IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE
TICK INSTABILITY UP FURTHER FROM THURSDAY AS PWAT'S REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER 1.5" AND SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60'S AND LOW 70'S. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT FOR A
FAIRLY ROBUST SEVERE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCP AND STP SUFFICIENT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS; ML CAPE OVER
1500 IS LIKELY WITH MODERATE-STRONG 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR (FOR
LATE MAY) WITH EC EFI A SOLID 0.8-0.9 FOR CAPE-SHEAR. RRFS,
NAM, AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING WITH
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH; THIS WOULD FAVOR A COLD POOL DRIVEN
LINEAR- TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE AND THEREFORE FAVOR A WIND THREAT.
A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
WITH POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE IF CONFIDENCE IN THE HREF
COVERAGE OR CONVECTIVE MODE INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONT, PWATS DROP TO NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER
TROUGHING IS SLOWLY REPLACED WITH STRONG RIDGING INTO THE START
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NAEFS AND EC EFI
BOTH HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WELL WITH BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE BUT
OTHERWISE NO MAJORS FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE MAY
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY, BUT WITH
THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE. WITH RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN,
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE START OF THE
WEEK POSSIBLY BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
SCOURS OUT. A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE WEDGE CONTINUES TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH MAY SITES FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE CLOUDS BECOMING
SCATTERED AND CLOUD HEIGHT RISING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THIS EVENING AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION,
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS AT
AGS/DNL, AND HAVE INCLUDED A PREDOMINANT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AT THOSE LOCATIONS. REMAINING SITES OF
CAE/CUB/OGB LESS LIKELY, BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A TEMPO PERIOD
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. AFTER 14Z AT ALL LOCATIONS, A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING BEGINS. WINDS REMAINING
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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