727
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
812 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY,
THEN A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
DESPITE THE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. THUS, SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL
FOG PRONE AREAS. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS, LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO GENERALLY THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
AN EJECTING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SWING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE PRIMARY LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT A
TERRIBLY HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE, DEEP PERSISTENT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SC AND GA. WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP, AND
INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 ML CAPE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20,
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS; THE 12Z HREF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THANKS TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
PWAT'S OVER 1.5". THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WELL, UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM, BUT THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE SHEAR BELOW 3KM. SO, OVERALL,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC MODERATELY
FORCED, MODERATE CAPE, AND MODERATE SHEAR SETUP WITH SOLID HREF
SUPPORT. SO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20; THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE THREAT AREA WELL WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. UNLIKE THURSDAY, THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS NOTABLE FOR LATE MAY WITH 95-99TH PERCENTILE
FLOW AT 500MB. WITH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT STRENGTHENING FROM LOW-
MID LEVELS, SHEAR WILL NOT BE LACKING ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
0-1KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL ALSO YIELD
SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENTS IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE
TICK INSTABILITY UP FURTHER FROM THURSDAY AS PWAT'S REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER 1.5" AND SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60'S AND LOW 70'S. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT FOR A
FAIRLY ROBUST SEVERE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCP AND STP SUFFICIENT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS; ML CAPE OVER
1500 IS LIKELY WITH MODERATE-STRONG 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR (FOR
LATE MAY) WITH EC EFI A SOLID 0.8-0.9 FOR CAPE-SHEAR. RRFS,
NAM, AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING WITH
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH; THIS WOULD FAVOR A COLD POOL DRIVEN
LINEAR- TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE AND THEREFORE FAVOR A WIND THREAT.
A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
WITH POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE IF CONFIDENCE IN THE HREF
COVERAGE OR CONVECTIVE MODE INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONT, PWATS DROP TO NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER
TROUGHING IS SLOWLY REPLACED WITH STRONG RIDGING INTO THE START
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NAEFS AND EC EFI
BOTH HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WELL WITH BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE BUT
OTHERWISE NO MAJORS FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE MAY
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY, BUT WITH
THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE. WITH RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN,
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE START OF THE
WEEK POSSIBLY BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT ERODED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BUT
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH COULD BRING
SOME ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. AGS/DNL/OGB APPEAR MORE FAVORED
THAN CAE/CUB BUT INCLUDED A PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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