797
FXUS62 KCAE 290639
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR REST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
DESPITE THE CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. THUS, SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL
FOG PRONE AREAS. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS, LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO GENERALLY THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
AN EJECTING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SWING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE PRIMARY LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT A
TERRIBLY HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE, DEEP PERSISTENT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SC AND GA. WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP, AND
INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 ML CAPE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20,
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS; THE 12Z HREF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THANKS TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
PWAT'S OVER 1.5". THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WELL, UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM, BUT THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE SHEAR BELOW 3KM. SO, OVERALL,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC MODERATELY
FORCED, MODERATE CAPE, AND MODERATE SHEAR SETUP WITH SOLID HREF
SUPPORT. SO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20; THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS HIGHLIGHTS THE THREAT AREA WELL WITH WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. UNLIKE THURSDAY, THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS NOTABLE FOR LATE MAY WITH 95-99TH PERCENTILE
FLOW AT 500MB. WITH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT STRENGTHENING FROM LOW-
MID LEVELS, SHEAR WILL NOT BE LACKING ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
0-1KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL ALSO YIELD
SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENTS IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE
TICK INSTABILITY UP FURTHER FROM THURSDAY AS PWAT'S REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER 1.5" AND SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60'S AND LOW 70'S. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT FOR A
FAIRLY ROBUST SEVERE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCP AND STP SUFFICIENT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS; ML CAPE OVER
1500 IS LIKELY WITH MODERATE-STRONG 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR (FOR
LATE MAY) WITH EC EFI A SOLID 0.8-0.9 FOR CAPE-SHEAR. RRFS,
NAM, AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING WITH
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH; THIS WOULD FAVOR A COLD POOL DRIVEN
LINEAR- TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE AND THEREFORE FAVOR A WIND THREAT.
A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
WITH POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE IF CONFIDENCE IN THE HREF
COVERAGE OR CONVECTIVE MODE INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONT, PWATS DROP TO NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER
TROUGHING IS SLOWLY REPLACED WITH STRONG RIDGING INTO THE START
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NAEFS AND EC EFI
BOTH HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WELL WITH BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE BUT
OTHERWISE NO MAJORS FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE MAY
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY, BUT WITH
THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE. WITH RIDGING SLOWLY WORKING IN,
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE START OF THE
WEEK POSSIBLY BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FOG STRATUS DEVELOPING IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS
PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS LEADING TO PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS,
PARTICULARLY AT AGS/OGB. MORE MINOR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY MVFR, ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 29/13Z BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
SITES. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH SUNRISE
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SW/W AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT
-TSRA/-SHRA, WHICH COULD BRING SOME PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, AGS/DNL/OGB APPEAR MORE FAVORED THAN CAE/CUB
BUT INCLUDED A PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS. PRECIP SHOULD THEN CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING, WITH SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS. VFR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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