072
FXUS62 KCAE 291734
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR REST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON TAP ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CSRA AND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THOSE AREAS HAVE ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A MCV MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL GA, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF IT INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CSRA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE
OF THIS MCV. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO, WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPC
MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK IN THAT AREA, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. IN ADDITION, WITH HIGH PWAT
VALUES, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, SO THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF FLOODING. AREAS THAT ARE NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE A LOWER
THREAT OF SEEING ANY SEVERE STORMS, BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
STILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE VERY LEAST.
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT, BUT MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS A FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL THINKING FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO STILL IN THE
CARDS.
THE SLOW MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A LINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
AND DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPSTATE. HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG LINE OF DEEP
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A ROBUST CAPE-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT; SCP AND STP ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR ALL HAZARDS, BUT
GIVEN AN EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE, WIND AND TOR ARE THE
MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HOWEVER IN THE HREF MEMBERS, WITH
SOME SHOWING A SCATTERED-BROKEN LINE AND OTHERS, LIKE THE HRRR,
MORE ORGANIZED AND AGGRESSIVE.
FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT, IT IS EASY TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS GIVEN A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL 500-700MB
DRY AIR WHICH WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH, THE 99TH
PERCENTILE HEIGHT FALLS AND PWATS (OVER 1.8"), AND 99TH
PERCENTILE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BASED ON THE
NAEFS. SO, ITS FAIRLY ROBUST SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH NOTABLE
MESOSCALE FAVORABILITY. SOME MORNING STRATUS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT, BUT AT LEAST
MODEST ML CAPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE COOLEST-
DRIEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH (SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG COLD POOL IN PLACE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON), MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND
1-3PM, CENTRAL MIDLANDS-CSRA 2-4 PM, AND EASTERN MIDLANDS 3-6PM.
A SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AGAIN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS BUT GIVEN THE HIGH 0-3KM CAPE AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON, A COUPLE QLCS MESOVORTICE-STYLE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SLOWLY REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDING INTO NEXT WEEK. PWAT'S GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR
UNDER 1" FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THUS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED. NAEFS AND EC EFI
HIGHLIGHT THE LACK OF ANY ANOMALOUS WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS, HEIGHTS, AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR LOW END POPS APPEAR TO BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IT DEPARTS. AFTER THIS, STRONG
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE INTO THE REGION,
MAINTAINING THE EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND STICK TO NEAR AVERAGE, BUT MAY RISE TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MIXTURE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL LOCATIONS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
VCTS AROUND THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL HOURS
OF NEEDING A TEMPO GROUP FOR PERIODS OF TSRA IMPACTING EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT THE VERY LEAST.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. BY 04Z ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TAF
LOCATIONS, SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS/VCSH BY THEN. A
RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THEN POSSIBLE AS THE RAINFALL
EXITS, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 02Z, THEN INTO IFR
AFTER 04Z AT MANY LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR AFTER 15Z
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS. VFR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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