004
FXUS62 KCAE 300124
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
924 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR REST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING, THEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED.
STRONGER AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED AND SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS OF 00Z, ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS
EVENING THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND IT
BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FROM TODAY, WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A 20-30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A BIT WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS A FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL THINKING FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO STILL IN THE
CARDS.
THE SLOW MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A LINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
AND DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPSTATE. HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG LINE OF DEEP
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A ROBUST CAPE-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT; SCP AND STP ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR ALL HAZARDS, BUT
GIVEN AN EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE, WIND AND TOR ARE THE
MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HOWEVER IN THE HREF MEMBERS, WITH
SOME SHOWING A SCATTERED-BROKEN LINE AND OTHERS, LIKE THE HRRR,
MORE ORGANIZED AND AGGRESSIVE.
FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT, IT IS EASY TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS GIVEN A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL 500-700MB
DRY AIR WHICH WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH, THE 99TH
PERCENTILE HEIGHT FALLS AND PWATS (OVER 1.8"), AND 99TH
PERCENTILE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BASED ON THE
NAEFS. SO, ITS FAIRLY ROBUST SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH NOTABLE
MESOSCALE FAVORABILITY. SOME MORNING STRATUS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT, BUT AT LEAST
MODEST ML CAPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE COOLEST-
DRIEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH (SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG COLD POOL IN PLACE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON), MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND
1-3PM, CENTRAL MIDLANDS-CSRA 2-4 PM, AND EASTERN MIDLANDS 3-6PM.
A SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AGAIN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS BUT GIVEN THE HIGH 0-3KM CAPE AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON, A COUPLE QLCS MESOVORTICE-STYLE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SLOWLY REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDING INTO NEXT WEEK. PWAT'S GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR
UNDER 1" FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THUS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED. NAEFS AND EC EFI
HIGHLIGHT THE LACK OF ANY ANOMALOUS WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS, HEIGHTS, AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR LOW END POPS APPEAR TO BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IT DEPARTS. AFTER THIS, STRONG
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE INTO THE REGION,
MAINTAINING THE EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND STICK TO NEAR AVERAGE, BUT MAY RISE TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, WE EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z IN THE
MOIST, RAIN-COOLED LOWER LEVELS. DECENT MIXING AT THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG BUT IF LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP THE STRATUS MAY BUILD DOWN ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT AND SW/WSW WIND GUSTS PICK UP AROUND 15Z
ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE FROM 18Z TO 22Z.
GUSTS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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