628
FXUS62 KCAE 300732
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
332 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FROM THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A BIT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS A FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL THINKING FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO STILL IN THE
CARDS.
THE SLOW MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR A LINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
AND DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPSTATE. HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG LINE OF DEEP
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A ROBUST CAPE-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT; SCP AND STP ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR ALL HAZARDS, BUT
GIVEN AN EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE, WIND AND TOR ARE THE
MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HOWEVER IN THE HREF MEMBERS, WITH
SOME SHOWING A SCATTERED-BROKEN LINE AND OTHERS, LIKE THE HRRR,
MORE ORGANIZED AND AGGRESSIVE.
FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT, IT IS EASY TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS GIVEN A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL 500-700MB
DRY AIR WHICH WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH, THE 99TH
PERCENTILE HEIGHT FALLS AND PWATS (OVER 1.8"), AND 99TH
PERCENTILE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BASED ON THE
NAEFS. SO, ITS FAIRLY ROBUST SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH NOTABLE
MESOSCALE FAVORABILITY. SOME MORNING STRATUS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT, BUT AT LEAST
MODEST ML CAPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE COOLEST-
DRIEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH (SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG COLD POOL IN PLACE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON), MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND
1-3PM, CENTRAL MIDLANDS-CSRA 2-4 PM, AND EASTERN MIDLANDS 3-6PM.
A SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AGAIN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS BUT GIVEN THE HIGH 0-3KM CAPE AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON, A COUPLE QLCS MESOVORTICE-STYLE TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SLOWLY REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDING INTO NEXT WEEK. PWAT'S GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR
UNDER 1" FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THUS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED. NAEFS AND EC EFI
HIGHLIGHT THE LACK OF ANY ANOMALOUS WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS, HEIGHTS, AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR LOW END POPS APPEAR TO BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEFORE IT DEPARTS. AFTER THIS, STRONG
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE INTO THE REGION,
MAINTAINING THE EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND STICK TO NEAR AVERAGE, BUT MAY RISE TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT MVFR/IFR
STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. IN A FEW LOCATIONS, LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME, WHICH MAY BUILD
DOWN ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE INTO
MID-MORNING UNTIL THE INVERSION MIXES OUT AND SW/WSW WIND GUSTS PICK
UP AROUND 30/15Z ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. A LINE OF
-TSRA WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE FROM
30/19Z-22Z. WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO
30 KTS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LINE OF
CONVECTION, AND WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE W/NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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