033
FXUS62 KCAE 301911
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
311 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
BEHIND IT. CALMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON
- WIDESPREAD 50-70 MPH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH A SQUALL LINE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
AND ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH, WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN IL
TO CENTRAL AR AS OF 12Z. FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS, A ROBUST WIND FIELD
EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THIS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE
AND SHIFTS TOWARDS A NEGATIVE TILT THIS AFTERNOON. 250 HPA WINDS
WITHIN THE JET STREAK ARE NORTH OF 100 KNOTS, WITH A 60 KNOT 500 HPA
JET PUSHING EASTWARD AS WELL. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LIFT
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES. MEANWHILE, STRONG HEIGHT &
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE RESULTING IN ROBUST MIXING OF THE EARLY
MORNING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
GREATER DESTABILIZATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THIS IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2P AND
7P TODAY.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN SC AND GA. THE WIND FIELD ORGANIZING
THIS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY 6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KNOTS, WITH 30-35
KNOTS OF 3KM SHEAR. MLCAPE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD WITHIN
GUIDANCE AS IT INGESTS CURRENT DATA. WOULD EXPECT THE AREA TO SEE
1000-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE WHOLE OF THESE DATA SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 50-70 MPH
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE LINE. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY HELP BACK THE SURFACE WINDS
JUST A BIT FROM WHERE THEY ARE MODELED TO BE, SLIGHTLY ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS AND YIELDING A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS & ROBUST
3KM CAPE OF 75-150 J/KG AND 3KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA
SUGGESTS A QLCS TORNADO THREAT WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. SPC HAS
UPGRADED THE AREA TO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A
RESULT. IN TERMS OF OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE LOW OR MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY AFTER
THE STORMS PUSH THROUGH, WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS.
SATURDAY: NOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE FRONT, MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S. CAN’T FULLY RULE OUT A
DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTH NEAR LANCASTER
COUNTY, WITH NBM GIVING THEM LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, BRINGING OUR NEXT 20
TO 30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGREEMENT ON THE
DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS NOT HIGH, RANGING FROM <500 TO
1500 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, BUT WITH SHEAR VALUES BELOW 20
KNOTS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
MONDAY: THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT SLOWLY REACH A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY, THOUGH WELL
BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE, NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BRIEFLY ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND THAT PERIOD.
PRIMARY ISSUE DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS CURRENTLY
ORGANIZING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
DURING THIS PERIOD, POTENTIALLY PACKING A PUNCH AS IT DOES SO.
HAVE TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
WITH WINDS CURRENTLY PEGGED AT UP TO 40 KNOTS. THESE COULD BE
HIGHER OR LOWER BUT THIS IS KIND OF A GENERAL ESTIMATION OF WHAT
WE COULD BE LOOKING AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND
IT, DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AND YIELDS QUITE A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AVIATION WISE. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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