247
FXUS62 KCAE 310547
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY AIR AND CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES BEFORE WARMING UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S OR POSSIBLY 40S. WITH WEST
WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WE DO NOT EXPECT EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS.
SATURDAY: NOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE FRONT, MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S. CAN’T FULLY RULE OUT A
DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTH NEAR LANCASTER
COUNTY, WITH NBM GIVING THEM LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, BRINGING OUR NEXT 20
TO 30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGREEMENT ON THE
DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS NOT HIGH, RANGING FROM <500 TO
1500 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, BUT WITH SHEAR VALUES BELOW 20
KNOTS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
MONDAY: THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT SLOWLY REACH A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY, THOUGH WELL
BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE, NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE W TO
NW. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST
AIR COULD ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AT PRONE AGS AND OGB WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WNW AT 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SKIES
REMAIN SKC, WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES THEN CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER IN THE
EXTENDED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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