572
FXUS62 KCAE 310754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY AIR AND CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES BEFORE WARMING UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
- BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND
A COLD FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A
RESIDUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDSPEEDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS DISRUPTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S. SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WE
START TO WARM UP FOR THE DAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING BELOW 60 DEGREES
ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
AS PW VALUES DROP BELOW AN INCH TODAY, CLOSER TO 0.7" IN FACT, SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SOLAR INSOLATION. WITH THE FRONT HAVING PASSED,
MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE, UNTIL
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING. CAN’T FULLY RULE OUT A
DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER,
BUT KEPT POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT. DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS.
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SPELL OF VERY DRY AIR TODAY, PWS
ARE FORECAST TO BUMP UP NEAR 1" ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FEATURE AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON OVERALL COVERAGE
BUT LOCATION LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I20 ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THESE
WILL BE BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MONDAY LOOKS SIMPLY BEAUTIFUL
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
PWS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL, YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY. THE
PERIOD WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS BUT THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
ENSEMBLE & OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS PUSH IN AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE W TO
NW. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST
AIR COULD ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AT PRONE AGS AND OGB WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WNW AT 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SKIES
REMAIN SKC, WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES THEN CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER IN THE
EXTENDED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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