691
FXUS62 KCAE 311500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY AIR AND CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES BEFORE WARMING UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
- BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A
TOUCH BEHIND FORECAST, PARTIALLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SMOKE
PREVENTING FULL SUNSHINE. THIS SMOKE SHOULD STAY ALOFT TODAY AND
NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HEALTH HAZARDS, BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW WHAT THEY WOULD OTHERWISE
HAVE BEEN.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH
I CAN'T RULE OUT A STARY ONE SNEAKING INTO THE CATAWBA/PEE DEE
AREA. NOTHING TO CANCEL PLANS OVER, HOWEVER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS.
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SPELL OF VERY DRY AIR TODAY, PWS
ARE FORECAST TO BUMP UP NEAR 1" ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FEATURE AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON OVERALL COVERAGE
BUT LOCATION LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I20 ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THESE
WILL BE BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MONDAY LOOKS SIMPLY BEAUTIFUL
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
PWS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL, YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN BREAKS DOWN AGAIN BY THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY. THE
PERIOD WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS BUT THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
ENSEMBLE & OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS PUSH IN AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE W TO
NW. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST
AIR COULD ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AT PRONE AGS AND OGB WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WNW AT 10-13 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SKIES
REMAIN SKC, WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES THEN CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER IN THE
EXTENDED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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