017
FXUS62 KCAE 311806
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SPAWNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEARBY ALL WEEK WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
- BREEZY AT TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ARE WILL BE BETWEEN FRONTS TODAY AND TONIGHT, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SUNSHINE WILL BE
FILTERED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON FROM HIGH LEVEL SMOKE, KEEPING
THE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST THANKS TO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW ENGLAND, BUT WINDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL COME DOWN BELOW 10 MPH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS.
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
AS DEEP-TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY , AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
FACILITATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. DUE TO WEAK LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE, THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE CRITERIA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
STORMS WILL KEEP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. 12Z HREF SUGGESTS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND DRY AIR BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN. WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE, EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS STRONG MID-LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST FAIRLY QUITE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY. THUS, BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE
PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE USHERS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY FROM THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND, BUT THE WIND SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY, SO NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SMOKE, BUT IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS AT THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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