383
FXUS62 KCAE 010555
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AND
WILL REMAIN NEARBY ALL WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ALLOWING GUSTS TO DIMINISH AND POSSIBLY GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH SPARKED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NC BUT AS THE OUTFLOW DRIFTS SOUTH THE
CONVECTION HAS RUN OUT OF STEAM. THEREFORE A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. WE'LL SEE A FEW DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ALSO A LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH COULD HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. EITHER WAY TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS.
AS DEEP-TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY , AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
FACILITATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. DUE TO WEAK LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE, THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE CRITERIA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
STORMS WILL KEEP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. 12Z HREF SUGGESTS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND DRY AIR BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN. WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE, EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS STRONG MID-LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST FAIRLY QUITE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY. THUS, BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE
PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE USHERS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ONLY AROUND 10K
FT MSL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LAYER OF
SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BUT NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED. WSW WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND
10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW -TSRA MAY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES MID-WEEK LEADING TO
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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