448
FXUS62 KCAE 010825
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
425 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY
AND WILL REMAIN NEARBY ALL WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NC.
THERE REMAINS A LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES, WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY AFFECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL, WITH
TEMPERATURES SITTING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STILL A BIT OF TIME FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING, BUT IT SHOULD ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
BEFORE THE SUN STARTS TO WARM THINGS UP AGAIN.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL GRAZE THE REGION ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER, WITH A SIMILAR ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH. IT DOES APPEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA, MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, GENERALLY AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS, WITH MARGINAL SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KTS AND PW
VALUES AROUND 1-1.25". ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN PUSHES INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT, AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. HIGHS TODAY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED!
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TROUGHING IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY, YIELDING TO RISING HEIGHTS
AND RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS KIND OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD & SUSTAIN AN
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND INTO THE LONG RANGE. DRIER THAN
NORMAL AIR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS, WITH NAEFS PWS
NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JUNE. THIS EQUATES TO PWS OF
0.75"-1.0", SO OBVIOUSLY BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE FROM WHERE THEY WERE THIS WEEKEND,
BUT STILL BE NEAR NORMAL (MID/UPPER 80S) WITH BELOW NORMAL DEWPOINTS
(55F-60F). IN GENERAL, EXPECT BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO START THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK!
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEREAFTER.
- IN GENERAL, THOUGH, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY INTERESTING BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE PASSING TROUGH TODAY GETTING CUT OFF OVER THE GULF.
THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF UNCERTAINTY LATER THIS WEEK AS
ITS EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL PATH OUT OF THE GULF WILL HAVE SOME
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR WEATHER. THERE IS A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AMONGST
GUIDANCE; THE GFS IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION BUT IN GENERAL GUIDANCE IS
A BIT MORE WET THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SMOOTHS
OUT THE SOLUTIONS A BIT BUT IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
PATTERN WILL GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BEYOND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING SHOULD
BREAK DOWN AS DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC & INCREASE FAVORABLE ONSHORE
FLOW, WITH MOISTURE INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY BY FRI/SAT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BACK TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THOUGH THAT WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WE SEE.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ONLY AROUND 10K
FT MSL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LAYER OF
SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BUT NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED. WSW WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND
10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW -TSRA MAY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES MID-WEEK LEADING TO
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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