821
FXUS62 KCAE 271730
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS REGARDED BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW. AS SUCH, FLOW HAS
STEADY SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWED MOISTURE TO
SLOWLY RETURN ACROSS THE AREA, EVIDENT IN THE FAR MORE EXTENSIVE
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TERRIBLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GENERALLY ML CAPE BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND LINES UP WITH
THE EXPECTED BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE MESOANALYSIS, SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS- STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-20 INTO THE EVENING. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL SOME
TYPICAL SUMMER PULSE ARE EXPECTED LIMITED BY SOME LINGERING DRY
AIR AND NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED IN SOUTHERN GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GETTING
CAUGHT UP IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH PWAT'S NEAR 1.8-1.95" COULD BRING SUBTLE FORCING IN AN
OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED AND TYPICAL SUMMER ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AIDING IN BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW SEVERE RISK WITH
INSTABILITY BEING A BIT LOWER (AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE) AND
LOW LEVEL MIXING/LAPSE RATES THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. AS PER USUAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM CANNOT BE RULED WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES THAT NEAR
THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
- INCREASED POP'S INTO THE MID-WEEK WITH TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKING INTO THE
EXTENDED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK,
DRIVING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BEFORE THIS IS REPLACED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE MID-WEEK. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A PLUME OF PWAT'S NEAR TO JUST OVER 2"
SHOULD MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
A SLOW MOVING, WEAK FRONT NEARS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S OVER 2" NEARING 50-60% AND AT LEAST
DECENT FORCING NEARING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, POSSIBLY THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCREASED POP'S ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEFORE
RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK IN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-WEEK ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL, BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT AND RAIN
CHANCES, IT COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW POP
UP STORMS ARE THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE WHICH COULD BRING WITH IT
TYPICAL RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
VCTS MENTION FROM 20-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL FOG SATURDAY MORNING BUT SOME
SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. AGS AND OGB COULD SEE THEIR TYPICAL MIFG RELATED
ISSUES, SO LINED THAT UP IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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