963
FXUS62 KCAE 272257
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOMEWHAT DEFORMED AS UPPER
JETS ARE STARTING TO IMPINGE ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN REGIONS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN MLCAPES
ARE STILL AROUND 2K, THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES, AND ACTIVITY SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED IN SOUTHERN GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GETTING
CAUGHT UP IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH PWAT'S NEAR 1.8-1.95" COULD BRING SUBTLE FORCING IN AN
OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED AND TYPICAL SUMMER ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AIDING IN BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW SEVERE RISK WITH
INSTABILITY BEING A BIT LOWER (AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE) AND
LOW LEVEL MIXING/LAPSE RATES THAT ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. AS PER USUAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM CANNOT BE RULED WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES THAT NEAR
THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
- INCREASED POP'S INTO THE MID-WEEK WITH TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKING INTO THE
EXTENDED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK,
DRIVING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BEFORE THIS IS REPLACED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE MID-WEEK. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A PLUME OF PWAT'S NEAR TO JUST OVER 2"
SHOULD MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
A SLOW MOVING, WEAK FRONT NEARS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S OVER 2" NEARING 50-60% AND AT LEAST
DECENT FORCING NEARING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, POSSIBLY THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCREASED POP'S ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEFORE
RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK IN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-WEEK ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL, BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT AND RAIN
CHANCES, IT COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL LINGERING IN THE AREA, BUT
THE ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AND DON'T THINK THE COLUMBIA OR
AUGUSTA TERMINALS. OGB MAY SEE A SHOWER/STORM RIGHT AROUND THE
00Z HOUR, BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL.
AFTER THAT, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING AT AGS
AND OGB. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER ABOUT 15Z, THEN SHIFT
TO MORE SOUTHERLY A FEW HOURS LATER. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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