010
FXUS62 KCAE 280755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WHILE THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA.
OVERALL, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
BUT IT WAS NOTED THAT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER TODAY
WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH A BIT MORE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE ABOVE 700MB WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW.
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE A STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS EITHER WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY BUT STILL SLOW WHICH WILL FAVOR THE PULSE
NATURE WE COME TO EXPECT OF SUMMERTIME STORMS AND THE
COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGHER PWATS COULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. WHILE IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
LOW. LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD POSSIBLE EARLIER
INITIATION TIME AND SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE SO WILL CARRY
SOLID CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. TONIGHT, LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE GEFS MEAN INDICATING LESS THAN ONE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH A LACK OF ANY MAJOR
FORCING MECHANISM, TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
EXPECTED AS HREF MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.8 INCHES.
COVERAGE LIKELY MAXIMIZED IN THE EAST ALONG THE SEABREEZE WHICH THE
OVERALL FLOW WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS, LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO LESSEN WITH THE HREF INDICATING AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
- INCREASED POP'S INTO THE MID-WEEK WITH TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING DIPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS. GEFS AND
EC ENSEMBLE MEANS DO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE GEFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL IMPACT
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES RECOVER AND HOW LONG WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IMPACTS THE AREA. BEYOND THE TROUGH THOUGH, ENSEMBLES GENERALLY
AGREE IN RIDGING STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME POSSIBLE THIN HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY RISING TO AROUND 6 TO 8 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE A
BIT MORE COVERAGE TODAY POSSIBLY IMPACTING TERMINALS, SO
INCLUDING A PROB30. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
SUNDAY. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page