782
FXUS62 KCAE 281714
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLASSIC SUMMER AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90'S.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
PRETTY TYPICAL LATE JUNE DAY EXPECTED. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED RIGHT TO
AROUND 90 AS OF 1 PM, WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS. SO
MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE DAY ARE
DEVELOPING. AS THE RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS STALLED AND
STEADILY DECAYED TO OUR WEST, LOW-DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS POOLED
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT'S CLIMBING TO NEAR 2.0". THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS HELPED 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA BUT DCAPE'S ARE NOTABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ANY RESIDUAL SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FINALLY WASHED
OUT SO WE IN A CLASSIC PULSE SETUP, BUT DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY
WILL BE LIMITED. DEPENDING ON HOW ANY OUTFLOWS SETUP AND THE
LACK OF STEERING FLOW, THERE IS A LOW END FLASH FLOODING THREAT
TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. PWAT'S AND SKINNY CAPE
ALOFT SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE TO END THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EACH DAY LOOKS TO SEE NEAR NORMAL TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, NEGLIGIBLE FORCING
OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS SEEN
BOTH DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 92-94F
BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WHERE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK ORGANIZING SHEAR AND OVERALL
STEERING FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING SLOW MOVING PULSE
STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE A
STORM COULD SIT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MLCAPE AND DCAPE VALUES MAINLY MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
BEGINS TO CLEAR DURING THE EVENING EACH DAY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STICK TO THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- POP'S INCREASE STARTING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY
BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY NEARING THE FA. TROUGHING SHOULD INCREASE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOME AND DUE TO THIS PWAT'S LIKELY
EXCEED 2" BY LATE TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY. NAEFS AND THE EC EFI CONTINUE TO SHOW NOTHING TOO
ANOMALOUS WITH THIS TROUGH AND AT THIS TIME, MACHINE LEARNING AND
AI GUIDANCE IS NOT SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY DUE TO THE THE FA BEING FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY BEING FAIRLY
DIFFUSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. IN
GENERAL, THE INCREASED MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONGER FORCING SHOULD
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY, CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE 12Z GFS AND GEFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
AND EC ENSEMBLE WITH THE TROUGH LARGELY MOVING OFF SHORE BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE EC MEMBERS DO NOT HAVE
TROUGHING MOVING OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW LONG THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE FA WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS TROUGH BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN WITH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT COOLER
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A TYPICAL SUMMER CU FIELD IS DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD FILL IN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 MENTION FOR ALL
SITES. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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