560
FXUS62 KCAE 282320
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
720 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND BREEZY WINDS REMAINING POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE TO END THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EACH DAY LOOKS TO SEE NEAR NORMAL TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, NEGLIGIBLE FORCING
OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS SEEN
BOTH DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 92-94F
BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WHERE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK ORGANIZING SHEAR AND OVERALL
STEERING FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING SLOW MOVING PULSE
STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE A
STORM COULD SIT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MLCAPE AND DCAPE VALUES MAINLY MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
BEGINS TO CLEAR DURING THE EVENING EACH DAY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STICK TO THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- POP'S INCREASE STARTING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY
BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY NEARING THE FA. TROUGHING SHOULD INCREASE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOME AND DUE TO THIS PWAT'S LIKELY
EXCEED 2" BY LATE TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY. NAEFS AND THE EC EFI CONTINUE TO SHOW NOTHING TOO
ANOMALOUS WITH THIS TROUGH AND AT THIS TIME, MACHINE LEARNING AND
AI GUIDANCE IS NOT SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY DUE TO THE THE FA BEING FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY BEING FAIRLY
DIFFUSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. IN
GENERAL, THE INCREASED MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONGER FORCING SHOULD
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING LATE
TUESDAY, CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE 12Z GFS AND GEFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
AND EC ENSEMBLE WITH THE TROUGH LARGELY MOVING OFF SHORE BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE EC MEMBERS DO NOT HAVE
TROUGHING MOVING OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW LONG THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE FA WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS TROUGH BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN WITH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT COOLER
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRETTY MUCH RINSE AND REPEAT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE
TERMINALS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND
DOWN BY LATE EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT,
WITH ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP WELL ABOVE ANY CONCERNING LEVELS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DAY HEATS UP. THERE WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, NOT INCLUDING A WIND GUST FROM
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT THE
TERMINALS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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