113
FXUS62 KCAE 291801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER. SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN GA, BUT MODELS SHOW THIS LOW BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH INLAND, HOWEVER LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO
BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH,
GENERALLY AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW, WITH WEAK SHEAR,
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LOW DCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE PULSE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S.
ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING, EXPECT JUST SOME
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION MONDAY, THOUGH IT MAY START TO BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED
TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE DAY AS TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IN GENERAL, THIS TROUGH WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON MONDAYS WEATHER OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BEING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, IN THE LOW 90S.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE INLAND PUSHING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD
WITH LITTLE ORGANIZING SHEAR. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD AID IN RAISING PWAT'S SOME TO NEAR 1.9-2" THROUGH THE DAY
AND WITH FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES (MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG) THE MAIN THREAT IN ANY STRONGER CELL WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THIS ACTIVITY DWINDLES THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, EXTENDING DOWN INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARING THE REGION, THOUGH THIS LIKELY WILL
NOT ENTER THE FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGHING, IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S, AND POP'S ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT'S BEGIN TO SURGE OVER 2" BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK UNTIL TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THIS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
LIKELY BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING. UNLIKE THE PATTERN THE FA HAS BEEN IN, RAIN
CHANCES MAY CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WEAK 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW WITH
THE CWA BEING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MAIN FORCING, PWAT'S BETWEEN
2-2.20" AND LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES YIELD A POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN RISK AS ANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-WEEK, DRIVING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THUS
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THURSDAY AS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE
FA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND
PWAT'S OVER 2" BEING AROUND 50-65%, A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE
WEAK FRONT. THURSDAY THEN SEES PWAT'S GRADUALLY FALL CLOSER TO
AVERAGE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPPER EAST COAST AND
FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE BIT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS
THE GREATER FORCING EXITS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SOLID ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT SHOWS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN
FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 5-7 KT THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LIKELY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT SOME
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG AT
KOGB AND KAGS, BUT PREFER TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND
SINCE THERE WAS NONE OBSERVED THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT THE
TERMINALS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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