199
FXUS62 KCAE 300128
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER. SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING, BUT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH PW
AROUND 1.8"-2" AS SCATTERED CONVECTION GENERALLY CONTINUES TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
CSRA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
ACTIVE, GENERALLY USING ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
SEA BREEZE AS A SOURCE FOR LIFT. THAT SAID, INCREASING STABILITY OVER
THE AREA SHOULD SHUT THINGS DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD FEATURE JUST SOME MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET SOME PATCHY
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR IN LOCATIONS
WHICH SAW SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION MONDAY, THOUGH IT MAY START TO BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED
TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE DAY AS TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. IN GENERAL, THIS TROUGH WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON MONDAYS WEATHER OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BEING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, IN THE LOW 90S.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE INLAND PUSHING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WEAK FORCING REMAINS OVERHEAD
WITH LITTLE ORGANIZING SHEAR. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD AID IN RAISING PWAT'S SOME TO NEAR 1.9-2" THROUGH THE DAY
AND WITH FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES (MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG) THE MAIN THREAT IN ANY STRONGER CELL WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THIS ACTIVITY DWINDLES THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, EXTENDING DOWN INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARING THE REGION, THOUGH THIS LIKELY WILL
NOT ENTER THE FA UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGHING, IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S, AND POP'S ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT'S BEGIN TO SURGE OVER 2" BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK UNTIL TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THIS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
LIKELY BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING. UNLIKE THE PATTERN THE FA HAS BEEN IN, RAIN
CHANCES MAY CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WEAK 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW WITH
THE CWA BEING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MAIN FORCING, PWAT'S BETWEEN
2-2.20" AND LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES YIELD A POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN RISK AS ANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-WEEK, DRIVING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THUS
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THURSDAY AS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE
FA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH SBCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND
PWAT'S OVER 2" BEING AROUND 50-65%, A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE
WEAK FRONT. THURSDAY THEN SEES PWAT'S GRADUALLY FALL CLOSER TO
AVERAGE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARD THE UPPER EAST COAST AND
FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE BIT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS
THE GREATER FORCING EXITS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SOLID ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT SHOWS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN
FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY AROUND ALL
THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME, SO WILL KEEP VCTS GOING THROUGH 02Z.
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING NEAR THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA
TERMINALS HAVE BEEN A TRIGGER FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT, WHICH GIVES
THOSE LOCATIONS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING A STORM AT THE
TERMINALS AND HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 02Z TO COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED,
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE ANTICIPATED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
TAF. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG AT AGS/OGB,
BUT WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NO VIS REDUCTION AS
WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY FOG THE PAST FEW MORNINGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT THE
TERMINALS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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