545
FXUS62 KCAE 010104 RRA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
904 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST. MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING; NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MAINLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA AREA THIS EVENING. PWS REMAIN IN THE 1.7"-1.9" RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE CAPPING INVERSION IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE AND HEATING. ONCE THESE LAST FEW AREAS OF
PRECIP TAPER OFF, THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SO FAR COOLED OFF INTO THE 80S, BUT SHOULD
ULTIMATELY END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS A LOW END POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG OR STRATUS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY LIKE THE CSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
DURATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
- RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT EAST MID-WEEK ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM MODEL
ENSEMBLES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES TYPICAL OF A FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER, STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE, EXPECT HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS FOR TUESDAY, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW, A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE NEARER THE COAST WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS/DNL....
EVENING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, WITH A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS AT OGB/AGS/DNL TOWARDS DAYBREAK SO
ADDED A TEMPO TO THOSE TERMINALS WITH THIS UPDATE. ANY LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY MIDDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDED A
LINE TO THE TAFS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AT
CAE/CUB/OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES AT THE TERMINALS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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