063
FXUS62 KCAE 020056
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
856 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.
STORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME OVERCOMING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
TODAY, AND WE'RE ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THERE REMAINS AN AREA OF HIGHER PW
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA, WITH VALUES OF 2"-2.2". SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE KIND OF HIT A WALL WHEN TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST, THOUGH RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK LINE
MAY MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID, ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE ELEVATED AND LIKELY CARRY A LOW SEVERE THREAT
GIVEN CAPPING STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY TRAINING
CELLS, BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING, A STRATUS DECK IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK, BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN AVIATION ISSUE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTHEAST PROVIDING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STORM MOTION VALUES
AROUND 10 KTS, WE MAY STILL SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY
IN URBAN AREAS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. WITH DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON THE
FA BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY
TO SATURDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES, STORM CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. THIS WEEKEND SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURS
THAT MAY DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW END RISK FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING....
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE LINE OF DECAYING CONVECTION IS APPROACHING
AGS/DNL WITH A SECOND CLUSTER APPROACHING OGB. HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THESE SITES
WHILE KEEPING VCSH AT CAE/CUB ON THE OFF CHANCE SOMETHING
DEVELOPS THERE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS ANY LINGERING CONVECTION QUICKLY
DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING
SO OPTED FOR MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH A TEMPO FOR LIFR AT DNL WHERE DECKS WERE THE LOWEST THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAVING THUNDER CHANCES OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST AT OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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