905
FXUS62 KCAE 021030
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TODAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK,
LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE
COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
DAY, HELPING TO PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CAN NOT RULE OUT HIGHER COVERAGE AMOUNTS THOUGH BASED ON LATEST
NBM POPS. PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS AND OTHER FLOOD
PRONE LOCATIONS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
RAIN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90. FOR TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND AN END TO
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT,
AND WITH SOME LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HREF MEAN INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER IN THE NW TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES IN
THE SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN AS FAR SE AS ORANGEBURG DO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 10KFT WITH A DRY LAYER
FROM THE MID THROUGH UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
IN THE FARTHEST SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AS HEIGHTS RECOVER AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING PWATS WILL BE AROUND ONE STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING VALUES LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE 1.5 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
BORDER WITH THE CHARLESTON CWA. AS A RESULT, BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ENTIRE AREA DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST. OVERALL IMPACTS
LIMITED BUT COULD INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MOSTLY HANG ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THAT SITS OFF
THE COAST OF SC. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS
NOW 40% IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS FORMING SO CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT THIS WOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY CAN BE
NOTED IN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE IN GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF MOSTLY DRY, HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD AT MOST MIDLANDS TAF
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA THROUGH THE DAY, THEN WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH GUIDANCE
SOMEWHAT VARIED FOR RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON, WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 TO HANDLE THAT POTENTIAL AT THE MIDLANDS LOCATIONS. AS
FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THEN A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT ALL LOCATIONS AS CEILINGS IMPROVE
AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CUMULUS AND EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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