730
FXUS62 KCAE 021719
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
119 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TODAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK,
LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE
COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN & ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS, AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARDS
THE AREA, ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
CONSEQUENTLY LAID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PWAT'S OVER
2.1" IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND DOWN BELOW 1.5" IN THE UPSTATE.
PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS PRETTY CLEAR IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS OF 17Z IN
THE MIDLANDS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE HELPING PUSH ML CAPE TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80'S. DESPITE
THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH SHEAR THROUGH
6-8KM, SO THE CONVECTIVE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED ESPECIALLY
WITH ONLY MODERATE CAPE. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT'S, SKINNY CAPE
SHAPE, AND THEREFORE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, FLASH FLOODING IS
BIGGEST CONCERN, BUT ENOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD GENERALLY
PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HREF MEAN INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER IN THE NW TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES IN
THE SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN AS FAR SE AS ORANGEBURG DO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW 10KFT WITH A DRY LAYER
FROM THE MID THROUGH UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
IN THE FARTHEST SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AS HEIGHTS RECOVER AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING PWATS WILL BE AROUND ONE STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING VALUES LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE 1.5 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
BORDER WITH THE CHARLESTON CWA. AS A RESULT, BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ENTIRE AREA DRY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST. OVERALL IMPACTS
LIMITED BUT COULD INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MOSTLY HANG ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THAT SITS OFF
THE COAST OF SC. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS
NOW 40% IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS FORMING SO CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT THIS WOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY CAN BE
NOTED IN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE IN GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LOWERING CIGS-VSBY EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
AN APPROACHING FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 18Z,
POPPING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN, THIS SHOWERS-STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. SO AT LEAST VCTS OR TS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN 6-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF STORMS ACTIVITY, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SOME STRATUS-
FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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