379
FXUS62 KCAE 021833
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TODAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY THIS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
MOISTURE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PROMOTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN & ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS, AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARDS
THE AREA, ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
CONSEQUENTLY LAID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PWAT'S OVER
2.1" IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND DOWN BELOW 1.5" IN THE UPSTATE.
PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS PRETTY CLEAR IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS OF 17Z IN
THE MIDLANDS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE HELPING PUSH ML CAPE TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80'S. DESPITE
THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH SHEAR THROUGH
6-8KM, SO THE CONVECTIVE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED ESPECIALLY
WITH ONLY MODERATE CAPE. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT'S, SKINNY CAPE
SHAPE, AND THEREFORE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, FLASH FLOODING IS
BIGGEST CONCERN, BUT ENOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD GENERALLY
PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM
- EXPECT A SEASONABLY HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL SLIP INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL WORK TO
HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF I-20 WHERE MEAN NAEFS PWAT VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN FA NEARER THE COAST HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS COULD DRAW
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY BUT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LOWERING CIGS-VSBY EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
AN APPROACHING FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 18Z,
POPPING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN, THIS SHOWERS-STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. SO AT LEAST VCTS OR TS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN 6-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF STORMS ACTIVITY, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SOME STRATUS-
FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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