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FXUS62 KCAE 030148
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
948 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TODAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY THIS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
MOISTURE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PROMOTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A
SLOWLY MOVING FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DRIER AIR TOWARD THE UPSTATE
AND OVER 2" OF PW TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE THE CAP IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, WE MAINTAIN 1500-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO
SUSTAIN OUR WEAK CONVECTION. THAT SAID, WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE
PRECIP DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. UNTIL THEN, HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOTION AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. WE HAVEN'T HAD MUCH
IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY, SO DON'T EXPECT THAT THREAT TO
SUDDENLY DEVELOP NOW. ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM
- EXPECT A SEASONABLY HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL SLIP INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL WORK TO
HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF I-20 WHERE MEAN NAEFS PWAT VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN FA NEARER THE COAST HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS COULD DRAW
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY BUT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LINGER NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING; SOME CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN, ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03/04Z. CLOUD DECKS SCT-BKN AOA 5KFT
MSL. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SELY TO SWLY LESS THAN 10 KTS, WEAKENING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR PERHAPS CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATUS AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG THURSDAY
MORNING SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. SKIES THEN CLEAR MID TO
LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NELY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
FOR MENTION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS THURSDAY, BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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