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FXUS62 KCAE 030532
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY THIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST. MOISTURE MAY
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PROMOTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL PWS SLOWLY USHERING IN
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I20
GENERAL TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS
HOUR (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS), WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE
FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, IT IS
TOUGH TO ACTUALLY DETERMINE WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT IS. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT IS NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS LATE EVENING CONVECTION WAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR EARLIER. THETA-E AND PW GRADIENT IS COLLOCATED HERE,
ADDING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS POORLY DEFINED FRONT IS SOMEWHERE
IN THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY WANED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS SETTLED IN. LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ARE AGAIN FAVORED TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S.
AS WE GET INTO THE DAY TODAY, IT LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO SOME OF
THE WEATHER THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK. THE TROUGHING WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WASH OUT AND SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH OF I20, WITH EASTERLY FLOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF IT. WITH PWS
FALLING TO THE 1.25-1.5" RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH & REMAINING IN
THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20 THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ISN'T LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO AGAIN WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
- EXPECT A ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. IN ADDITION,
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST ON
FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY, THE
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND, ALLOWING FOR THE
CONVECTION TO SPREAD MORE INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE WEAKENED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH
READINGS STILL REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW COULD BE, ALONG WITH WHERE IT
COULD TRACK. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW TOWARDS THE SC COAST
AND SLIGHTLY INLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
BRINGS IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, THEN BACK OUT TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER SCENARIO SHOULD BRING MOISTURE
BACK INLAND, ALLOWING FORM SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SOME EXCEPTIONS EXPECTED IN THE 09Z-13Z RANGE THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION THAT WAS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE TAF SITES EARLIER IN
THE EVENING HAS WANED COMPLETELY, LEAVING REMNANT DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. A POORLY DEFINED FRONT IS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY NEAR WHERE THAT CONVECTION
DEVELOPED EARLIER. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT DEVELOPING LOW,
IFR OR LIFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY LATER ON THIS EVENING. CAE/CUB ARE FAVORED FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT, WITH CIGS FAVORED AS THE PRIMARY RESTRICTION
MECHANISM. AGS/OGB WILL PROBABLY SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
SOME POINT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WERE PARTICULARLY CLOSE
TO THE PRECIP EARLIER TODAY. BEYOND THIS ALL LIFTING OR BURNING
OFF BY 15Z AT THE LATEST, CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DOT THE SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY AT OGB, WITH A PROB30
THE MOST APPROPRIATE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS SEE CONVECTION AS WELL BUT
COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF RIGHT
NOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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