075
FXUS62 KCAE 031732
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY THIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST. MOISTURE MAY
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PROMOTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED STORMS AROUND THESE EVENING AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ACROSS
THE REGION. NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND THIS PWAT'S
FALLING BELOW 1.25" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER PWAT'S,
MAINLY EASTER OF I-95, WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LARGELY
FOLLOWS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT, WITH THE 1500+ ML CAPE AGAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, STEADILY WEAKENING TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS SUCH, POP'S ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AS IS ALREADY PLAYING OUT, COVERAGE
WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THE SEVERE
AND FLOOD THREAT IS STILL LOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
- EXPECT A ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. IN ADDITION,
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST ON
FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY, THE
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND, ALLOWING FOR THE
CONVECTION TO SPREAD MORE INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE WEAKENED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH
READINGS STILL REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW COULD BE, ALONG WITH WHERE IT
COULD TRACK. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW TOWARDS THE SC COAST
AND SLIGHTLY INLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
BRINGS IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, THEN BACK OUT TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER SCENARIO SHOULD BRING MOISTURE
BACK INLAND, ALLOWING FORM SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS-STORMS THIS EVENING.
A FRONT HAS WORKED THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME GENERALLY
AIR AND REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
DRAPPED ACROSS EASTERN SC, SO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT THE TAF
SITES WILL BE LOW THE REST OF THURSDAY WITH ONLY ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A VCSH MENTION. OTHERWISE, WINDS HAVE TURNED OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST FOR ALL SITES AS OF 18Z AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
6-10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR TONIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE
AND FOG CHANCES SO THERES NO TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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