906
FXUS62 KCAE 031843
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
243 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED STORMS AROUND THESE EVENING AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ACROSS
THE REGION. NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND THIS PWAT'S
FALLING BELOW 1.25" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER PWAT'S,
MAINLY EASTER OF I-95, WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LARGELY
FOLLOWS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT, WITH THE 1500+ ML CAPE AGAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, STEADILY WEAKENING TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS SUCH, POP'S ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AS IS ALREADY PLAYING OUT, COVERAGE
WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THE SEVERE
AND FLOOD THREAT IS STILL LOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WESTER
MIDLANDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED, THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT DEVELOPING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT IS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM
NORTHERN FL TO NC. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL IN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LARGELY DETERMINE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT THERE ARE ALSO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THAT KEEP US COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS-STORMS THIS EVENING.
A FRONT HAS WORKED THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME GENERALLY
AIR AND REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN SC, SO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT THE TAF
SITES WILL BE LOW THE REST OF THURSDAY WITH ONLY ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A VCSH MENTION. OTHERWISE, WINDS HAVE TURNED OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST FOR ALL SITES AS OF 18Z AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
6-10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR TONIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE
AND FOG CHANCES SO THERE'S NO TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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