179
FXUS62 KCAE 040229
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND MILD.
THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
EVENING, BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH
THE HREF SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD BUT SEASONAL, GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS STILL
EXPECTED, THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT DEVELOPING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT IS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM
NORTHERN FL TO NC. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL IN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LARGELY DETERMINE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT THERE ARE ALSO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THAT KEEP US COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT....
MOST OF THE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE DISSIPATED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECTED SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RESTRICTIONS AT OGB SO
THE TEMPO HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. WINDS INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AND MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. OMITTED THUNDER FROM THE FORECASTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THERE IS THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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