529
FXUS62 KCAE 040523
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A QUIET AND WARM INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY IS ON TAP
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON
WE'RE LOOKING AT QUITE A NICE INDEPENDENCE DAY ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS NOTED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISHED ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ONCE THE SUN SET. EXPECTING
SOMETHING SIMILAR TODAY GIVEN THE SET UP THAT IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MEANDERING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. IN RESPONSE, A BROAD SURFACE
LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY, WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. BECAUSE OF THIS, DRIER THAN NORMAL PWS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE
SPC PW MESOANALYSIS, WITH PWS <1.3" ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. THIS KIND OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY AND SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS ISOLATED AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES RELATIVELY LOW. STILL EXPECTING WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FORECAST.
TONIGHT, ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SURFACE LOW POSSIBLE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST, THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO
KEEP AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. PWAT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES, SO WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. THE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST COMPARED TO READINGS OVER THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH FURTHER
INLAND AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO MEANDER. THIS WILL
HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM
SURFACE LOW STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE SC COAST ON SUNDAY AS IT
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LARGELY
DETERMINE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS SEEM
TO REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE LOW OFFSHORE AND MOVING IT
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER, OR BRINGING IT
SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS
TRACK WOULD BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. FOR
NOW, NHC IS MONITORING ANY DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONGER TERM MAY BE DETERMINED BETTER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT A TON TO SAY ABOUT THIS FORECAST AS IT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT
FORWARD. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOUR OFF THE SC COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WINDS
TO GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HREF/LAMP/BUFKIT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TO AVOID GUSTY WINDS. CUMULUS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE. COVERAGE LOOKS LOW
ENOUGH RIGHT NOW THAT EVEN MENTION OF VCSH OR VCTS IS
UNNECESSARY. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THERE IS THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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