285
FXUS62 KCAE 051303
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
903 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL SEE A TROPICAL LOW
MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COAST, TRACKING MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN
SC/NC INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION WE RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
ORGANIZES AND MOVES NORTHWARD
CURRENTLY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER LOW HAS
HELPED TO FOCUS LIFT ATOP A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COASTLINE, WHICH HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NOW TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 160
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON AND IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOWLY.
THIS WILL BE THE CRUX OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
ITS DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. TODAY, WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE NICE PART OF THIS
SYSTEM. WE ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CYCLONE, AND AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALREADY
NOTED IN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND LIKELY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEASONALLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT) IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH <1" PWS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON, COMBINING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO YIELD A
FAIRLY NICE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GENERALLY GUST 20-25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. WHILE THIS IS
BORDERLINE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WAS A
STRONG NUDGER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LAKE ACTIVITIES THAT OCCUR ON 4TH
OF JULY WEEKEND. SO WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A LWA FROM 9A THROUGH 8P
TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG WINDS OVER AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS &
HIGH PWS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE EAST TO THE LOW
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A RESULT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY INCREASING AFTER 2A ALONG AND EAST OF I77/I26. DESPITE
BEING CLOSE TO LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ON THE EXACT TRACK. THIS CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SC/NC COASTLINE.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE ON SUNDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND CHANTAL, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL SC COASTLINE STARTING
OFF THE DAY. THE NHC HAS THE FORECAST TRACK MOVING INLAND DURING
THE MORNING, WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF SC THROUGH THE DAY, THEN INTO NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA, ALONG WITH A HEAVIER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON SUNDAY, THEN DIMINISHING RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NC SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN OF THE HEAT TO START OFF THE WEEK.
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM
TROPICAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY, THEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MID-WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES. HIGHS EARLY IN THE WEEK
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT, WITH READINGS BETWEEN 95 AND 100 POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR AND
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT OGB AND CAE/CUB TONIGHT.
TS CHANTAL IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IT IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON, MEANDERING
NORTHWARD. BEFORE IT DIRECTLY IMPACTS US, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
GUST 20-25 KNOTS, WITH SOME 28-30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
BUT SURELY INCREASES. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IN GENERAL THESE LOOK ISOLATED ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE TAFS RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, TONIGHT MOISTURE SHOULD
BECOME MORE COPIOUS AND BEGIN YIELDING CONSISTENT SHOWER
CHANCES. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHOULD BE MVFR CEILINGS, WITH IFR
LIKELY AFTER 07Z OR 08Z. AT THE COLUMBIA SITES, IT IS LESS
CERTAIN WHEN OR IF SHOWERS PUSH IN DURING THIS PERIOD. IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 08Z BUT RAIN
IS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHERE THE EXACT TRACK OF CHANTAL GOES.
AUGUSTA AND DANIEL ARE TOTAL WILD CARDS. LAMP AND NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT BOTH WILL SEE MVFR CIGS LATE IN THIS PERIOD BUT
I'M SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING THE TRACK SHOULD BE WELL EAST
OF THERE. STILL SHOW A BKN025 GROUP THERE AFTER 10Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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