449
FXUS62 KCAE 051744
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SPINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CHANTAL IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SUNDAY MORNING, TRACKING MOSTLY
ACROSS EASTERN SC/NC INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WE RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PROMPTING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHICH HASN'T MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. A FEW
LIGHTER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CHANTAL IS ALSO
ACTING AS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY. DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH IS BEING FILTERED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WEST OF I-95. AS CHANTAL AS
STRENGTHENED, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC HAS LED TO BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE BREEZY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST, ALLOWING FOR A RAPID RISE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2" FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO AN UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN
JUST HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET TONIGHT, HOWEVER.
FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SC/NC
COASTLINE.
- MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST
BY THE MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE MOST RECENT NHC ADVISORY. THE NHC TRACK
STILL HAS THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING GENERALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING THE SC/NC
BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SLUG A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN FA SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE PWAT'S RAISE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2",
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN PARTS OF CLARENDON, SUMTER, LEE, AND INTO
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES, WHERE POCKETS OF PWAT'S NEAR 2.3-2.5"
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CIRCULATION.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FA MUCH OF THE DAY. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COUPLED WITH
THE FORCING/ADVECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL SHOULD LEAD
TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 1" THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY REACH 40-60%
ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON, SUMTER, LEE, AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES. THIS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 20-25 MPH. THE REST OF THE
CWA SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 1".
AS CHANTAL WEAKENS, THE MAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND INTO NC BY THE EVENING, SLOWLY BRINGING LOWER
PWAT'S INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN
GENERAL, POP'S LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BETTER CHANCES KEEP TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PEE DEE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
- MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXPECTED.
CHANTAL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING PWAT'S THAT
ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH BOTH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS
MEMBERS IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS. UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF CHANTAL AND THIS WILL AID IN BRINGING
BACK HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK
AND INTO THE MIDWEEK BEFORE ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST TROUGHING MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE LATE
WEEK, POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND
BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP'S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR AND
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT OGB AND CAE/CUB TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW, BUT STILL VFR, CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED
AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS, GUSTING TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT
THE CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CHURNS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS
CHANTAL APPROACHES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIKELY IFR AFTER ABOUT 07Z-08Z AT
OGB/CAE/CUB WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT AGS/DNL. RAIN WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH
AT AGS/DNL TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THERE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST CURRENTLY TO NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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