641
FXUS62 KCAE 060115
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
915 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, TRACKING MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN SC/NC INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION WE RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SOME WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OUTER BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL.
CHANTAL CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC (5PM ADVISORY) SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL LEAD LANDFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE 7AM. SOME LINGERING GUSTS
OVER THE AREA, GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH,
ALTHOUGH HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS GUSTS
LIKELY LESS FREQUENT. STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
CHANTAL REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. WHILE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BULK OF THE RAIN APPEARS TO
COME AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SC/NC
COASTLINE.
- MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST
BY EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE MOST RECENT NHC ADVISORY. THE NHC TRACK
STILL HAS THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVING GENERALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING THE SC/NC
BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SLUG A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN FA SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE PWAT'S RAISE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2",
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN PARTS OF CLARENDON, SUMTER, LEE, AND INTO
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES, WHERE POCKETS OF PWAT'S NEAR 2.3-2.5"
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CIRCULATION.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FA MUCH OF THE DAY. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COUPLED WITH
THE FORCING/ADVECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM CHANTAL SHOULD LEAD
TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 1" THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY REACH 40-60%
ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON, SUMTER, LEE, AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES. THIS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 20-25 MPH. THE REST OF THE
CWA SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 1".
AS CHANTAL WEAKENS, THE MAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND INTO NC BY THE EVENING, SLOWLY BRINGING LOWER
PWAT'S INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN
GENERAL, POP'S LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BETTER CHANCES KEEP TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PEE DEE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
- MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXPECTED.
CHANTAL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING PWAT'S THAT
ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH BOTH THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS
MEMBERS IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS. UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF CHANTAL AND THIS WILL AID IN BRINGING
BACK HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK
AND INTO THE MIDWEEK BEFORE ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST TROUGHING MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE LATE
WEEK, POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND
BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP'S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR AND
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT OGB AND CAE/CUB LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL BUT STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS
THEY PUSH WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT OGB BUT EVEN SO
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIKELY NOT CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AS WELL WITH MVFR
CIGS REACHING OGB BY 09Z AND CAE/CUB BY 12Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
CIGS AT AGS/DNL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT OGB FROM AROUND
12Z-17Z AS THE CENTER OF CHANTAL MOVES INLAND AND TO NORTHEAST
SC THROUGH THE DAY. INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALL BUT AGS/DNL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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