468
FXUS62 KCAE 060524
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING, TRACKING MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN SC/NC THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION WE RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA.
TS CHANTEL IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SC
COASTLINE AS OF THIS WRITING. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
PROBABLY 30-40 MILES AWAY FROM MAKING LANDFALL AND SHOULD COME
ASHORE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT HAS
CREATED AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH THE BULK OF PRECPITATION IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
THE CASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING
FORECAST CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW, THE FIRST RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CHANTEL ARE ROTATING INTO THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THESE AS THEY PUSH
WESTWARD. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM INCREASES, THOUGH
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS IS UNCERTAIN. SO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON CHANTEL'S EXACT TRACK AS IT PUSHES INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2.2"-2.4"
RANGE NEAR THE CENTER, PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS. CASE IN POINT, HREF LPMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST 24H
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" IN THE PEE DEE. HOWEVER, HREF
INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR RAINFALL IS 0.4"-2.6", CASTING
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS THERE.
IT IS SIMPLY JUST DEPENDENT ON EXACT TRACK, AS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. WE DID CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE
(PLUS 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 5") WE HELD OFF FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, THE IMPACTS FROM CHANTEL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL. BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THE CSRA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND EVEN SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE SHOULDN'T BE AS COPIOUS AS FURTHER EAST & DOWNSLOPE
WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS EVEN DRIER. HIGHS THERE SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 90S, WITH HIGHS AS LOW AS THE LOW 80S IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT, WITH
SEASONAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN OF THE HEAT TO START OFF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
AS CHANTAL MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD TO
START OFF THE WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SETTING UP, A RETURN OF THE
SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOT AND
SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100, THE MOISTURE WILL
BRING HEAT INDEX READINGS UP TO AROUND 105, WHICH REMAINS SLIGHTLY
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER VALUES AND ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES EARLY THIS WEEK. AS FOR RAINFALL, A RETURN TO MORE OF A
TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HEAT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
- MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EXPECTED.
TOWARDS MIDWEEK THE UPPER TROUGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO MOVE IN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, AT THE
SURFACE THE REGION MAY SEE THE RETURN OF LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONGER TERM. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
SEA=BREEZE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH INTO THE CWA EACH
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF EVEN SO SLIGHTLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH, WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
BECOMING MORE COMMON BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR NOW, WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT OGB AND EVENTUALLY CAE/CUB AS CHANTEL MOVES ASHORE.
TO START OFF, THIS FORECAST WAS A REAL PICKLE TO MAKE AS THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OUT THERE. TS CHANTEL IS ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS EASTERN SC. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MAKING THEIR
WAY TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS
WITHIN ABOUT 60 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION RIGHT NOW,
AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE A WHILE BEFORE THAT PERIPHERY ENGULFS
OGB. I'D EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OVERTAKE OGB BY 08Z OR 09Z,
BUT THE TIMING OF THEM GETTING TO THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS IS LESS
CERTAIN. THE HRRR WAS REALLY THE PREEMINENT MODEL CASTING DOUBT
ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS, AND NOW THE LAMP
SEEMS TO HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THAT SCENARIO. SO HAVE SCALED
BACK RESTRICTIONS BASICALLY EVERYWHERE. OGB WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CEILINGS ONLY IN HEAVY SHOWERS, AND INCLUDE THAT IN THE PROB30
THERE. CAE/CUB ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL LENGTH OF TIME, WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINANT THERE.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
BREAK SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY MAKE IT EASIER TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS AT
CAE/CUB BUT IT WILL REALLY JUST DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
CHANTEL. AGS/DNL ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE LONG DURATION CEILING
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY'LL BE TOO FAR WEST. SO
THEIR FORECAST LOOKS QUITE LOVELY, WITH SOME VFR CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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